This Weekend Is Considered A Precursor To What Awards Will Win At The Oscars

The Golden Globes are on Sunday, NBC.

The Critics Choice Awards are on Friday, VH1.

Tom O’Neil, at The Envelope, Explains The Pattern Of  Oscar Prediction:

“Avatar”,”The Hurt Locker”, “Up in the Air,” “Precious”, and “Inglourious Basterds”…

Those five films recently established themselves officially as the most serious rivals to win the top prize at the Oscars by reaping nominations from the Directors’ Guild of America  — the most important Academy Awards omen.

But how accurate are the Critics’ Choice Awards and Golden Globes? What will we learn from seeing who wins this weekend?

Let’s examine what’s happened over the past 10 years. The Globes have two sets of awards, remember — drama and comedy/musical. One of their two best pictures repeated at the Oscars six times since 1999. That percentage is slightly lower than the Globes’ average over the past 50 years, so maybe their level of agreement with Oscar will rally soon.

Critics’ Choice is much higher: 80% over the past decade. In 2005, members of the Broadcast Film Critics Assn. opted for “Brokeback Mountain” over “Crash” and, in 2004, “Sideways” over “Million Dollar Baby.”

The Critics Choice Award also has a better history predicting best actor and actress than the Golden Globe over the past decade. Seven of the 10 best-actor prizes bestowed by BFCA repeated at the Oscars. Only five of the 20 best actors crowned by the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. went on to Oscar glory.

The Critics Choice voters aren’t so savvy forecasting the lead actress champs. Their percentage is only 60% in 10 years.

The reason that these two awards are so good at predicting the Oscar is because they actually influence Academy voters, who tune in to view the precursor award shows on TV.

Winners must give performances on the podium just as amazing as the film turns that got them there.

©HFPA